Poser (2003) menjelaskan, “Elliott Wave analysts (or "Elliotticians") hold that it is not necessary to look at a price chart to judge wherea market is in its wave pattern. Each wave has its own "signature" which often reflects the psychology of the moment. Understanding how and why the waves develop is key to the application of the Wave Principle; that understanding includes recognizing the characteristics described below.” (p. 8).
Poser (2003) menjabarkan, “Five wave pattern (dominant trend):
1. Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception.When the first waveof a new bull market begins, the fundamental newsis almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish,put options are in vogue,and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.
2. Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd"haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a threewave pattern.
3. Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend. The news is now positiveand fundamental analystsstart to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly,corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratioof 1.618:1.
4. Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2%of wave three.Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, the most distinguishing feature of fourthwaves is that they often prove very difficult to count.
5. Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume islower in wave five than in wave three, and manymomentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high, the indicatordoes not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed.
Three wave pattern (correctivetrend):
1. Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analystssee the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technicalindicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatilityin the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futuresmarkets.
2. Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulderof a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume duringwave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turnednegative.
3. Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizesthat a bear market is firmly entrenched.Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.” (p. 10−12).
Mengacu pada pendapat Poser (2003) pola Elliott Wave memiliki 5 wave pertama yang merupakan dominant trend atau up trend. Di dalamnya ada wave1, 3, dan 5 yang merupakanwave up trend dengan wave 2 sebagai koreksi wave1 dan wave 4 sebagai koreksi wave3. Lalu 3 waveberikutnya merupkan corrective trend atau downtrend. Di dalamnya terdapat wave A dan C sebagai wave down trend dengan wave B sebagai koreksi wave A.
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